Many readers, responding to my recent quality-check on Wikipedia, have argued that over time the entries in question will improve, so that in the long run Wikipedia will outpace conventional encyclopedias like Britannica. It seems to me that this is the most important claim made by Wikipedia boosters.
If a Wikipedia entry gets enough attention, then it will likely change over time. When the entry is new, it will almost certainly improve by adding more detail. But once it matures, it seems likely that it will reach some level of quality and then level off, executing a quality-neutral random walk, with the changes reflecting nothing more than minor substitutions of one contributor’s style or viewpoint for another.
I’d expect a similar story for Wikipedia as a whole, with early effort spent mostly on expanding the scope of the site, and later effort spent more on improving (or at least changing) existing entries. Given enough effort spent on the site, more and more entries should approach maturity, and the rate of improvement in Wikipedia as a whole should approach zero.
This leaves us with two questions: (1) Will enough effort be spent on Wikipedia to cause it to reach the quality plateau? (2) How high is the quality plateau anyway?
We can shed light on both questions by studying the evolution of individual entries over time. Such a study is possible today, since Wikipedia tracks the history of every entry. I would like to see the results of such a study, but unfortunately I don’t have time to do it myself.
