Jim Griffin, a music industry consultant who is in the unusual position of being recognized as smart and reasonable by participants across a broad swath of positions in the copyright debate, revealed last week that he’s working to start a new music industry organization that will urge ISPs to bundle a music licensing fee into their monthly service costs, in exchange for which the major labels will agree not to sue (and, presumably, not to threaten suit against) the ISP’s customers for copyright infringement of the music whose rights they own. The goal, Griffin says, is to “monetize the anarchy of the Internet.”

This idea has a long history and has at various times been propounded by some on the “copyleft.” The Electronic Frontier Foundation, for example, issued in April 2004 a report entitled “A Better Way Forward: Voluntary Collective Licensing of Music File Sharing“. This report even suggested the $5 per user per month ($60 per user per year) that Griffin apparently has in mind.

According to the OECD, there were roughly 60 million broadband subscriptions in the United States as of the end of 2006. If each of these were to pay $60 a year, the total would be $3.6 billion a year. I know that broadband uptake is increasing, but I remain unsure how Griffin figures that the proposed system “could create a pool as large as $20 billion a year.” Perhaps this imagines global, rather than national, uptake of the plan? If so, it seems to embody some optimistic assumptions about how widely any such agreement could plausibly be extended.

Some prominent blogs have reacted with ire—Michael Arrington at TechCrunch, for example, characterizes the move as an “extortion scheme.” Arrington argues that a licensing system will hinder innovation because the revenues from it will be constant irrespective of the amount or quality of music published by the labels, and will flow to an infrastructure that, once it begins to be subsidized, will have little structural incentive to innovate. He also argues in a later post that since the core of the system is a covenant not to sue, it represents a “protection racket.”

I think this kind of skepticism is poorly justified at this point. If the labels can turn their statutory right to sue for damages after copyright infringement into a voluntary system where they get paid and nobody gets sued, it strikes me as a case of the system working. And the numbers matter: The idea of a $20 billion payoff that would triple the industry’s current $10 billion in annual revenue does not seem reasonable, but unless I am missing something it also does not seem probable.

There are two core questions for the plan. First, what will it cover? The idea is that it will let the industry stop suing, and thereby end the antagonism between labels and customers. But unless a critical mass of the labels agree to the plan, users whose ISPs are paying in will still face the risk of suit from non-participating copyright holders. In fact, if the plan takes off, individual rights holders may face an incentive to defect, since consumers are equally likely to infringe all popular music regardless of which music happens to be covered by the plan (since they aren’t likely to track which music is covered).

Second, how will the revenue be shared? Filesharing metrics, provided by analysts like BigChampagne, are at best approximate, and they only track downloads that occur via the public, unencrypted Internet–presumably a large share of the relevant copying, but not all of it, especially in the context of University and other networks. The squabbles will be challenging, and if past is prologue, then the labels may not prove themselves an amicable bunch in negotiating with each other.

Finally, it’s important to remember that the labels’ power depends, in the very long run, on their ability to sign the best new talent. If the licensing system proposed by Griffin takes off, it may preserve the status quo for now. But if the industry continues to give artists themselves a raw deal, as it is so often accused of doing, artists will still have the growing power that digital technology gives them to share their music without a label’s help.