February 24, 2018

Archives for November 2012

The Silver Effect: What We Can Learn from Poll Aggregators

For those who now think Nate Silver is god, here’s a question: Can Nate Silver make a prediction so accurate that Nate Silver himself doesn’t believe it?

Yes, he can–and he did. Silver famously predicted the results of Election 2012 correctly in every state. Yet while his per-state predictions added up to the 332 electoral votes that Obama won, Silver himself predicted that Obama’s expected electoral vote total was only 313. Why? Because Silver predicted that Silver would get some states wrong. Unpacking this (pseudo-)paradox can help us understand what we can and can’t learn from the performance of poll aggregators like Nate Silver and Princeton’s Sam Wang in this election.
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Voting technology issues in Virginia on election day

I spent Election Day in one of the command centers for the 866-OUR-VOTE hotline. The command center was accepting calls from New Jersey, Maryland, DC, and Virginia, but 95% of the technology issues were from Virginia. I was the designated “technology guy”, so pretty much everything that came through that center came to me. This gave me a pretty good perspective on the scope of issues. (I don’t know about the non-technology issues, although I heard discussions of issues like demanding more ID than is required, voter intimidation, etc.)

Following is a summary of what I saw. What’s most interesting is that if you divide things into “easy to solve” and “hard to solve”, the “easy to solve” ones are all in places using optical scan, and the “hard to solve” are all in places using DREs (colloquially known as “touch screens”, although not all of them are).
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Joisy on my mind

Like everyone interested in the mechanics of elections, I’ve been fascinated by the New Jersey efforts to allow voters to request and submit ballots via email. In this posting, I’d like to address four brief points that I don’t think have received much attention – the first two policy, and the last two technical.

First, the New Jersey directives have been inconsistent in how they’ve treated the requirement for returning paper copies of ballots submitted by email. For good reasons, New Jersey law requires that hardcopies be submitted to the local elections office, to be postmarked not later than election day. But some of the releases from the Lieutenant Governor’s office have mentioned this requirement, and others have been silent. In particular, the final release, put out mid-afternoon on Election Day, says nothing about the topic, when it extended the deadline for returning the email copy to the end of Friday. I expect that the majority of email ballots will not have corresponding hardcopies returned, which should (if the law is followed) result in the email copies being discarded.
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